Egypt and Iran

The protests in Egypt and Tunisia have reminded me of the protests in Iran and I have also thought of two interconnected questions comparing those countries to Iran. Why has the protests in Tunisia and Egypt been largely successful in changing their regimes while the ones in Iran couldn't. Also could what is going on in Egypt inspire the Iranian people to once again rise up against their own regime.

With regards to the first question I think there are two reasons: the Revolutionary Guard and US pressure. The Iranian regime has the Revolutionary Guard which blindly follows the regime leaders and is willing to engage in the maximum level of violence to suppress the people. It seems clear that Mubarak does not have any sort of similar mass organization as a personal secret police. The only thing that crush the protests is the military and they have said that they are not willing to do Mubarak's dirty work for him. Such mass demonstrations can be broken up if there is man power using violence. Mubarak does not have have that power, but the regime leaders in Iran had such an ability in 2009.

Part of the reason the army turned against Mubarak and there was not a mass crackdown like in Iran very well could be the US. While Iran did not care about the international community and especially the US, America has influence over the Egyptian regime. In particular, I don't think the Egyptian military felt that it could have created a bloodbath without alienating the US and the leaders of the military want to maintain a good relationship with the US for national security reasons. Clearly the leaders of Iran and the Revolutionary Guard did not have the same concerns so they were able to launch a massive crackdown against the people. If Mubarak launched the same sort of suppression campaign as the Iranian regime, the protests would be crushed in the face of such brutality. However, Mubarak did not have that ability so that is why Egyptians have been able to bring such change to the regime.

As a result given the Revolutionary Guard and the regime's apathy towards the international community, it is very difficult to see a similar popular uprising taking place in Iran. Change will have to come through some sort of internal uprising or possible succession crisis if Khamenei dies. The other possibility would involve such a bad economic situation so that the Revolutionary Guard thugs no longer get pain enough to do the regime's dirty work. I still hold out hope that change can come to Iran and you never know what can happen.

One final connection that I see between Egypt and Iran is that many people are comparing this moment to the 1979 revolution in Iran. There are clear similarities with a pro-American aging leader facing a popular uprising against his rule. Of course the nightmare scenario is that radical Islamists will take over Egypt threatening peace with Israel and the stability of the region. I think as an Iranian, I worry about this more than the average Egyptian or even American because it happened in Iran. However, there does not seem like there is a charismatic Khomeini type leader and the protests have not been grounded in Islam so perhaps such concerns are overblown. Hopefully the people of Egypt and Iran will both soon be free and living in democratic societies.