Does the Regime Want War?

The publication of findings by the IAEA in the coming days which mostly like point to progress towards weponization of Iran's nuclear program as well as recent statements by Israeli officials have made the prospect of war dangerously real. This comes after heightened tension between Iran and the United States over an alleged assassination plot of the Saudi Ambassador. It seems that the regime in Iran is spiraling towards war with Israel that could drag the United States and other countries in.

In the first instance, those in power in Iran have to be criticized for taking the country to the brink of war and making enemies for the nation. It is clear that the regime actually would welcome a war since it will cause people to rally around the flag and create a distraction to the crimes they are committing inside the country. So we have to keep in mind that the regime actively wants a war to come and we have to be weary not to fall in their trap.

The regime's closest ally in the region, Syria, is on the brink of full scale civil war as the criminal Assad regime has lost more and more legitimacy with its people. The sanctions put in place by the international community have hurt the Iranian economy and have made life even more difficult for those in power. Domestic opposition is as pervasive and wide spread as ever, but is only kept from spilling in the streets at the point of a gun. Within the regime, those in power are fighting among themselves with strong divisions between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. These factors make it clear that the regime's days are numbered and it will collapse sooner or later outside any major developments.

That is why the specter of war is so dangerous and throws a dangerous dynamic into the situation. We must recognize that those in power are doing all in their power to welcome war so that they can shore up their position. They know that Israel cannot and the United States will not commit to ground operations in Iran, but instead any war will be limited to air strikes. The regime is gambling that it can endure these strikes and come out stronger on the other end because it has shored up its domestic situation.

The protests of 2009 scared the regime because it saw how much support it has lost among the Iranian people. We should not ignore the prospect that the regime is on the path to cause other countries attack Iran so that its own domestic situation will become stronger. So before a military strike is take on Iran, we must remember that it may strengthen the very regime that it is targeting.