2012 Preview: The Ailing Economy and More

After years of failed economic policies and reckless foreign policy that has caused sanctions by countries across the world, the Iranian economy seems on the break of a major crisis. Details are emerging about the numerous problems that are happening about the collapsing nature of the currency. The Iranian rial has reached an exchange rate of 16,800 rials to the dollar losing about 35% of its value compared to foreign currency.

As the discontent from this financial crisis starts to rise, it will be interesting to see if people will start to protest and other will start abandoning the regime because they are no longer receive financial support. The upcoming Majlis elections in the beginning of March should provide an opportunity for people to express their frustration with the regime especially since it will be rigged. This might be an interesting time to see if people once again take to the streets to protest the regime. Also all this is happening in the context of Iran's closet ally in the region going towards civil war and the possible collapse of the Assad regime.

The regime has responded to all this by first pretending nothing is wrong and then blaming outside powers for the country's problems. In the latest effort to deflect attention to their own failings, the regime has threatened to close the Straight of Hormuz while conducting military exercises and describing further progress of their nuclear program. Of course, all of this is spending precious money that could have actually been used to help people deal with the collapsing economy.

As the internal economy continues to do poorly, relations with other nations continue to go downhill raising the prospect of war. The regime likely would want a war so that people will rally around the flag and crack down harshly on any dissent that does rise up. Moreover, a limited war that would cause a naval and air war, but the lack of ground troops would not threaten the regime's hold on the country. This would raise oil prices giving the regime more money and causing people to lose track of the economic problems.

Hopefully the Obama administration will be too smart to be dragged into a war that the regime wants. The increasing economic problems will cause the power of the regime to collapse and allow the opposition to once again take to the streets to push for change. The upcoming Majlis elections and a possible collapse of the Syrian regime might also give the people of Iran more motivation to start fighting the regime. All this means that 2012 might once again be a year in which the Iranian people will rise up against the regime that is destroying their country. Stay tuned for an interesting year.