Join World Wide Protest This Saturday

Mark you calender and make sure you attend one of the protests around the world for Iran. This great organization is linking all the protests together:

http://united4iran.org/

Here is Iranian-American comedian Maz Jobrani's message of support:

What the VP Fight Is Really About

More about the division in the regime caused by Ahmadinejad's VP pick:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-protests22-2009jul22,0,7268956.story

As I previously noted, it seems that a power struggle between Ahmadinejad and Khameini is taking place over Ahmadinejad's selection of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei as his first VP. Yet why is this taking place and what does it teach us about the inner workings of the regime?

For me, the most plausible theory is that those around Khameini and other hardliners are trying to stop Ahmadinejad from taking over the government by appointing cronies. Mashaei is Ahmadinejad's in-law and is loyal to him. Perhaps this rigged election was meant more to keep Mousavi out of power as opposed to keep Ahmadinejad in power. Since the election could not have been stolen without Khameini, he might feel that Ahmadinejad should be loyal to him. Basically since they stole the election for him, the hardliners want Ahmadinejad to be their puppet, but it seems like Ahmadinejad wants to have his own power.

Iranian-Americans and the Unrest

A good article about the affect of the protests on Iranian-Americans:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-la-iran-factions21-2009jul21,0,2199619.story

As an Iranian-American, I believe the greatest impact of the unrest in Iran has been to disprove the stereotypes of Iranians in the media. We are not all radical fundamentalist and not all women are fully covered housewives. Instead the protests against this regime demonstrate that the people of Iran want freedom and democracy. They want to enter a modern world and truly show the greatness of the Iranian nation which has been humiliated in the world by the actions of the current regime. The current unrest makes me proud to be an Iranian because it shows the bravery and toughness of the Iranian people.

Khomeini's Grandson Leaves Iran

Another great post from NIAC about Khomeini's Grandson.

Instead of endorsing the election of Ahmadinejad, Sayed Hasan Khomeini decides to leave the country. This Khomeini is a mid-ranking cleric that seems to deeply agree with the reform movement on the issues of Islam and democracy.

This just goes to show you how decreasing level of support the regime has from clerics including the grandson of the leader of the Islamic Revolution. While he seems to have been outspoken against the regime for some time, his departure is a symobolic blow to the regime's image of following in the tradition of Khomeini.

Power Struggle within the Hardliners?

NIAC has interesting report that Supreme Leader Khamenei wants Ahmadinejad to fire his choice for first Vice-President Mashaei. Ahmadinejad reportedly does not want to and the status of Mr. Mashaei is not entirely clear at this time.

This raises the interesting question of who really wears the pants within the hardliners. Obviously Khamenei is legally the highest authority in the government, but can he decide questions regarding Ahmadinejad's cabinet. Traditionally the Surpreme Leader is not supposed to hold this kind of sway over personal selections of the President. However Khamenei might feel that Ahmadinejad must follow his orders because he effectively made him President by not challenging the resutls of the rigged election.

This reaises the question of what happens to the government that gets its legitimacy from one man and not from the people. Is Khamenei tyring to consolidate power around his rule and is Ahmadinejad resisting? All these questions demonstrate that even the power dynamics within the hardline faction of the regime is not simple. Now take into account the power struggle between hardliners and other people within the regime such as Rafsanjani and you have a very complicated situation indeed.

Fresh Protests

Today is the anniversary of 1952 protests in favor of the democratically elected Nationalist Prime Minister Muhammad Mossadegh. The protests mark the power of the people of Iran to affect politics through protesting because the 1952 protests temporarlily kept Mossadegh in power (although he was overthrown in a US bakced coup a year later). To mark this occasion, fresh protests have been reported with the regime trying to break it up. This is a familiar story and it just shows the regimes inablity to break the spirit of the people.

Action Call

As I argue here and here, I believe that President Obama's Realist policy towards Iran is the perfect way to go to help the reform movement in Iran. The United States cannot be seen as interfering in internal Iranian affairs or about to go to war with Iran.

Unfortunately, the House Foreign Affairs committee is holding a hearing in which many neo-cons who have openly advocated war with Iran are participating. Given the delicate situation in Iran, the United States must act very carefully in order to ensure the lives of those fighting the regime. Any indication of American involvement in the current uprising can help a crackdown by the regime against the reformers.

Nico Pitney at the huffpost makes a great suggestion of what to do and I would also urge everyone to do it:

"Now, more than ever, this panel needs the balance of a progressive voice. If you'd like to suggest Trita Parsi (or someone else), I'd urge you to give the committee a call at (202) 225-5021."

For Obama, the Road to Tehran Runs through Damascus?

Lost in the recent criticism of President Obama for not doing more in Iran is the fact that the United States has started a major attempt to reengage Syria. While Obama is doing the right thing when it comes to Iran, perhaps his detractors are not giving him enough credit for other actions he is taking in the Middle East. This article from the Jerusalem Post which interviews a high ranking American military official highlights US efforts to sway Syria away from Iranian influence:

“In his interview with the Post at the Pentagon, the senior US defense official also suggested that Syria might be ready to "fundamentally" reorient its position toward the United States, which would include restarting talks with Israel, at a time when Hamas and Hizbullah have been put "on the defensive" by Obama administration policies and events in Iran.”

Syria is the only country in the Middle East that is a strong ally of Iran (that is if you do not count the American backed Shii Iraqi government). It seems as if a major component of the Obama Middle East strategy involves bringing Syria into the Western fold. A similar situation occurred with Libya in 2003 when the country decided to give up its WMD programs and stop its support for terrorism in exchange with normal relations with the West.

Although doing this with Syria won’t be easy and may take some time, the result would be Iran becoming even more isolated in the world. Syria may also cut back its support of the groups Hezbollah and Hamas which are strong supporters of Iran. Finally Syria may be able to restart peace negotiations with Israel that may lead to a peace treaty between the two countries. The affect of all three of these moves would be to destabilize the regime in Iran by removing or weakening its regional allies. It would also increase pressure on Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program because of its weakened regional position.

In particular, Iran’s weakened position right now due to the unrest may tempt Syria to leave the Iranian sphere of influence to join the stability of the West. This move by Syria would then further weaken Iran. This circular cycle is precisely what the Pentagon official seems to be talking about, “In looking where the region was a year ago, you would have said that there was a lot of momentum on the side of Iran and its allies. I think if you would assess the situation right now, that the momentum is probably going in the opposite direction.”

Ironically some of Obama’s biggest critics of engagement with Syria are also his biggest critics on Iran. However, Obama’s diplomatic push with Syria is a shrewd and smart way to undermine the current regime without overtly getting involved (not to mention the positive affects it could have for overall Middle East peace). The Obama administration may not want to directly involve itself in internal Iranian affairs, but it is pressuring the regime by trying to take away Iran's allies.

p.s. One could argue that the Obama administration is also trying to do this with the regime's allies in Latin America, Cuba and Venezuela.

Government Thugs Shoot Unarmed Protestors

Make sure to watch the whole thing

Mousavi's Work

As I noted, opposition leader Mir Hussein Mousavi is an architect. He also paints as a hobby. Here are some examples just to give you an idea of his work:



A building he designed



One of his paintings