Tuesday, July 21, 2009

For Obama, the Road to Tehran Runs through Damascus?

Lost in the recent criticism of President Obama for not doing more in Iran is the fact that the United States has started a major attempt to reengage Syria. While Obama is doing the right thing when it comes to Iran, perhaps his detractors are not giving him enough credit for other actions he is taking in the Middle East. This article from the Jerusalem Post which interviews a high ranking American military official highlights US efforts to sway Syria away from Iranian influence:


In his interview with the Post at the Pentagon, the senior US defense official also suggested that Syria might be ready to "fundamentally" reorient its position toward the United States, which would include restarting talks with Israel, at a time when Hamas and Hizbullah have been put "on the defensive" by Obama administration policies and events in Iran.”


Syria is the only country in the Middle East that is a strong ally of Iran (that is if you do not count the American backed Shii Iraqi government). It seems as if a major component of the Obama Middle East strategy involves bringing Syria into the Western fold. A similar situation occurred with Libya in 2003 when the country decided to give up its WMD programs and stop its support for terrorism in exchange with normal relations with the West.


Although doing this with Syria won’t be easy and may take some time, the result would be Iran becoming even more isolated in the world. Syria may also cut back its support of the groups Hezbollah and Hamas which are strong supporters of Iran. Finally Syria may be able to restart peace negotiations with Israel that may lead to a peace treaty between the two countries. The affect of all three of these moves would be to destabilize the regime in Iran by removing or weakening its regional allies. It would also increase pressure on Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program because of its weakened regional position.


In particular, Iran’s weakened position right now due to the unrest may tempt Syria to leave the Iranian sphere of influence to join the stability of the West. This move by Syria would then further weaken Iran. This circular cycle is precisely what the Pentagon official seems to be talking about, “In looking where the region was a year ago, you would have said that there was a lot of momentum on the side of Iran and its allies. I think if you would assess the situation right now, that the momentum is probably going in the opposite direction.”


Ironically some of Obama’s biggest critics of engagement with Syria are also his biggest critics on Iran. However, Obama’s diplomatic push with Syria is a shrewd and smart way to undermine the current regime without overtly getting involved (not to mention the positive affects it could have for overall Middle East peace). The Obama administration may not want to directly involve itself in internal Iranian affairs, but it is pressuring the regime by trying to take away Iran's allies.


p.s. One could argue that the Obama administration is also trying to do this with the regime's allies in Latin America, Cuba and Venezuela.

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