The Quickest Way to Crush the Reform Movement (and do lots of other bad things too)

A simple answer: military action by Israel or the United States against Iran.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates is planning a trip to Israel, and Iran is without a doubt the main topic of discussion. Many on the far right are advocating and have advocated military action against Iran for some time. Given the fact that the United States is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is safe to say that the military action would be in the form of air strikes against nuclear sites. The idea of an Iraq-style invasion by the United States or Israel is hard to imagine given the current circumstances. Before military action is taken, I think it is only fair to outline some of the possible consequences:

Pro:

- Disrupt Iran’s nuclear. However no guarantee of complete destruction since nuclear sites are spread out around the country and are probably well protected.

Con:

- Reform movement will be crushed and hardliners will strengthen their hold on power. This is precisely what happened after Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980. It gave the regime the pretext of a foreign enemy in order to crush all internal dissent and rally the nation around the regime.

- Many possibly thousands of American troops may die in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran has strong links to groups in both countries on its borders in particular Iraq and may launch attacks against American troops. Moreover Iran may destabilize the shaky political situations in these countries.

- Iran may also launch attacks in the Persian Gulf against American interests and cut of the world supply to oil by shutting the Straight of Hormuz. Obviously these actions would cause retaliation by the United States and start a much bigger regional conflict.

- Iran may launch missiles against Israel. Iranian backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah may also launch attacks against Israel.

- Strengthen the resolve of Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon to protect against future attacks.

- Oil prices may rise dramatically depending on Iran’s willingness to cut and disrupt oil supplies.

- End any possibility of American-Iranian relations for the foreseeable future.

I am not suggesting that military action should never be considered. However, we must be honest about the consequences which many right wing advocates of military action are not. Moreover given all these negative consequences, military action should be the absolute last option when dealing with Iran. Finally, I think we should allow time to see if the reformists can come to power and fundamentally change Iranian foreign policy. A revolution can’t be won in a week so I think we should just be a little more patient.