Saturday, July 25, 2009

Key Player: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani


Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is one of the few remaining high-ranking non-hardline members of the current government. Rafsanjani has been called the second most powerful man in Iran after the Supreme Leader, but it is hard to gauge his actual influence given the current power grab by the hardliners. He is the head of a 86 member clerical body within the government called the Assembly of Experts which selects the Supreme Leader and can theoretically remove him. In the immediate aftermath of the election unrest, there were rumors that Rafsanjani was trying to remove Khameini, but he probably does not have the support to do so as of right now. Rafsnajani is also the head of the Expediency Council which was set up to resolve conflicts between the Majlis (parliament) and another clerical body called the Guardian Council which has veto power over the Majlis. In reality, the Expediency Council does not do much or have much power.

Rafsanjani represents to the reformists their biggest advocate within the regime. He has often been described as a pragmatist, moderate, and centrist who would like better relations with the West. At his recent speech at Friday Prayers, Rafsanjani seemed to indicate his support for the opposition movement and clearly challenged Khameini's desire to let the election protest die down. All of this comes from one of the founding fathers of the Islamic Republic.

Rafsanjani player an integral role in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the creation of the Islamic Republic. He was very close to Khomeini and was also good friends with Khameini in years following the Revolution. In 1980 he survived a very serious assassination attempt and went on to become Chairman of the Majlis. Rafsanjani is also a clerical and is often called an Ayatollah out of respect since he probably doesn't have the credentials to merit such a title. Coming from humble origins, Rafsanjani has become perhaps the richest man in Iran and many have accused him of corruption to earn his riches.

Both Rafsanjani and Khameini were at Khomeini's bedside when he died and yet Khomeini designated Khameini to be his successor as Supreme Leader. From this point, a competition between the two men has been on going for power within the Islamic Republic. Rafsanjani went on to be President of Iran from 1989-1997 in the years following the war with Iraq. He advocated a less ideological approach to government and was given credit for post-war reconstruction. At home he advocated free market economic reforms while abroad he sought greater engagement with the rest of the world.

After his presidency, Rafsanjani remained active in the government and many people believed he was really the man running the country from behind the scenes. Yet in 2005 the seeds of discord were sowed when Rafsanjani ran again for President and faced Ahmadinejad in a run off to see who would become President of Iran. Ahmadinejad ran on a anti-corruption platform and contrasted his own humble lifestyle with the enormous wealth of Rafsanjani. In an election filled with voter apathy and boycotts from the reformist as a result of strict candidate vetting, Ahmadinejad won vowing to fight the power of the elite.

Ever since, Rafsanjani has been trying to counter Ahmadinejad and the hardliners sway within the government. Some have argued that Rafsanjani has only spoken out against the regime because of the threat that Ahmadinejad's populist rhetoric poses to Rafsanjani's wealth. While Rafsanjani has made statements supporting greater freedom, it is hard to tell how much he actually agrees with the reformists belief in human rights and democracy. In many ways, the relationship between Rafsanjani and the reformists is one of convenience. They both don't like Ahmadinejad and need each other to fight the regime. The reformists need Rafsanjani's sway within the system while Rafsanjani needs the reformists popularity on the street.

Whatever the case, Rafsanjani's Friday Sermon put him squarely on the side of the reformists since he called for the release of political prisoners and made a reformist argument that there were democratic components in early Islam. Also, the fact that the government let him give the sermon at all when they knew he would probably say pro-reformist statements demonstrates the sway he still has within the regime. Yet at the same time, his daughter was arrested for a brief time in the recent crackdown perhaps as a warning to check his criticism of the regime. Rafsanjani's importance is that he is a powerful well-connected man still in the government who despises the hardliners and what they stand for. It is hard to tell how much power Rafsanjani has left and what actions he will take to fight the regime, but all that is certain is that he will be a key component to the continuing unrest in Iran.

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