The Case Against War

As negotiations begin between the P5+1 nations with Iran regarding the nuclear program, many in the US are again stating that war is the only solution. I will bring up why this prospect is unwise and shortsighted both in terms of the Green Movement and because of the US.

First during this sermon, reformist cleric Mohsen Kadivar outlines why military action against Iran would only help the regime and hurt the Green Movement:

Please let me state the stance of the green movement as I understand them, on these issues. I strongly believe that the Iranian problem must be solved by Iranian hands. Democracy is not what is placed in the backpack of an American soldier to be exported to Iraq or Afghanistan. Democracy is not what is put in American ships and is exported to Basra and the like. Democracy needs political, social, economic and cultural backing by the people. I am certain our people have this. We want to implement Iranian democracy in our own country by our own hands. And we do not need any foreign country to do so for us.

In regards to a military attack, I believe this will only be in the benefit of the current rulers of Iran. And will, most certainly bring much harm to the people of Iran. A military attack is like a coup d’état. The truth will never conquer by a coup d’état.

We are the ones who can reform our country and are strongly against any sort of military intervention. If anything of this sort is carried out, for example, by Israel who has been sending us threats, this will be the greatest blessing the current rulers in Iran can get. They will use this excuse to silence the protesters even more and to imprison more people and this will result in the total burial of the opposition voices that now exist in Iran.

Secondly I previously outline why war would make no sense for the US and thus it seems that negotiations are the only option to actually produce any sort of result we would want:

- Many possibly thousands of American troops may die in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran has strong links to groups in both countries on its borders in particular Iraq and may launch attacks against American troops. Moreover Iran may destabilize the shaky political situations in these countries.

- Iran may also launch attacks in the Persian Gulf against American interests and cut of the world supply to oil by shutting the Straight of Hormuz. Obviously these actions would cause retaliation by the United States and start a much bigger regional conflict.

- Iran may launch missiles against Israel. Iranian backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah may also launch attacks against Israel.

- Strengthen the resolve of Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon to protect against future attacks.

- Oil prices may rise dramatically depending on Iran ’s willingness to cut and disrupt oil supplies.

- End any possibility of American-Iranian relations for the foreseeable future.

Those who are advocating war should sit down and think hard about this issues before make such rash decisions that could have such negative impacts on millions of people.