Not Just

Excellent analysis on what the protests surrounding Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death represent in the grand scheme of things:

It’s no longer “just” Tehran. It’s no longer “just” students. It’s no longer “just” a Green elite v. the “common people” of Iran.

There have been so many rumours over the last 96 hours. Given the nature of communications, it is hard sometimes to confirm the reports racing around the Internet (for example, it was only 30 minutes ago that we could visually verify the size of the demonstration in Najafabad at the memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri yesterday). Given the complexity of discussions and intrigues behind closed doors, we are only posting a fraction of what is claimed about Iran’s Government, armed forces, or clerics.

Even more important, therefore, to repeat what we do know. It’s no longer “just” Tehran. It’s no longer “just” the students.

In the weeks after the election, almost all of the video and most of the reporting came out of Iran’s capital, so the stage for the political conflict was Tehran. And even when, despite the restrictions of the Government, footage came out of other cities, the protests were often those on university campuses.

Of course, the camera’s lie might have been one of omission. From mid-June, we have heard of disquiet throughout Iran. Where we could get reliable sources, we have noted the protests and discussions from Shiraz to Tabriz to Mashhad to Hamedan. Yet we could only see a tip of what might lay below the waterline of political events.

So those defending the Iranian regime as stable or widely-supported — harking back to Ahmadinejad’s alleged 63% vote in June — could always assert that those reporting on a widespread opposition were exaggerating, distorting, fantasising.

No longer.

In the excitement since Sunday, I’m not sure it has quite sunk in. The hundreds of thousands who mourned Grand Ayatollah Montazeri on Monday were not in Tehran. (Had there been unrestricted movement from Tehran to Qom, who knows how many more would have spilled beyond the iconic photos and videos of demonstrations we posted on Monday/Tuesday?) Yesterday, despite the forced suspension of the memorial service for Montazeri, they turned out in Isfahan. Later, despite a “ban” on any ceremonies, they appeared in Najafabad.

It continues today —a service, led by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, is to be held in Zanjan. And it will continue tomorrow and Saturday and Sunday, the holy day of Ashura.

And as it continues, those on the streets and in front of the mosques are not just a core of students — Governments will always try to say it’s just “the students”, who have no responsibilities of employment or the common sense of adulthood to check their whimsical protests. The videos testify to the range of ages and backgrounds, beyond any label of “reformist” or “conservative”, now involved in the rallies.

Last night, there was a curious juxtaposition as we assembled material for the website. On the one side, we had clip after clip of demonstrators with their slogans, uttered even as security forces rushed about and in some cases beat those who were shouting. Sometimes the slogans were of praise for those dead (Montazeri) and those still living, sometimes they were of condemnation for those still claiming power and legitimacy, and at times they constituted a demand for the removal of the Government and even of the Supreme Leader.

On the other side, we had the interview of President Ahmadinejad with Britain’s Channel 4. Here was a man who waved away any notion of a substantial opposition, just as he denied any restriction of those Iranians who might desire to protest (”We have freedom in Iran — people are free to express their views.”). His people must love him; after all, wasn’t he here talking as their leader to a representative of the “enemy” foreign media?

Put those videos side-by-side this morning: one man in Tehran versus thousands across the country. And then ask, “Where now the momentum of politics?”