The Weekend

Tomorrow is Tasua and Sunday is Ashura. These are two of the holiest days in Shii Islam and a time when people traditionally take to the streets to mourn the prophet Muhammad's grandson Hussein. Sunday will also be 7 days since the passing of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri which is an important day of mourning in Shii Islam.

In many ways, this weekend is the most important days of protest since the day after Khamenei gave his Friday sermon banning all protest on June 19. The next day the regime cracked down on protests and killed many including the famous martyr Neda. While they succeeded in temporary halting protests, the anger and resentment that crackdown created only led to further opposition towards the regime in the long run.

The Green Movement tried to move forward in the Summer and Fall with daily small scale resistance and significant protests for Qods Day on September 18 and 13 of Aban on November 4.

Then the protests on December 7 for National Students Day re-energized the student movement and the death of Montazeri galvanized the religious parts of the opposition. The holiest days in Shii Islam have the potential for large scale protests that will deeply destabilize the regime. Moreover we are entering the time of the year in which 31 years ago the final triumph of the Islamic Revolution took place over the Shah.

The next two days have the potential to set off protests that could cause a potentially significant spiral of protests against the regime which cannot be easily controlled. One thing for certain is that this weekend is going to be very important for the path of the Green Movement.