Why Ashura Was Important

To put it simply, this is starting to look more and more like a traditional revolution.

The protests immediately following the June election largely followed the model of a civil rights movement with mass rallies and marches. Over the next several months these periodic mass demonstrations were met with force by the regime, but protesters were reluctant to engage with Basiji militiamen.

All that has changed on Ashura. People were mad as hell and they weren't going to take it anymore. The regime kept pushing and pushing and finally the people snapped. It seems that on Ashura the regime hoped to step up the violence in order to discourage people from taking to the streets anymore.

Instead people were now willing to confront the Basij and took up any tactics available to defend themselves. This includes setting fires to counter the effects of tear gas, throwing rocks, joining in groups to engage with the Basij, and creating roadblocks to make vehicle transportation for the Basij difficult.

In a word, people started to act together to fight the Basij and it worked. For the first time, the security apparatus of the regime showed its weakness and the regime no longer seemed invisible. The people worked in a concerted effort in order stop the regime's ability to control the country through force. Large parts of Tehran were under the control of the protesters and it looked as if the regime was unable to control its own citizens.

Moreover almost all the anger of the protesters seemed to have shifted towards the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Open criticism of the Supreme Leader was previously unthinkable, but it was the most common rallying slogan today. In perhaps one of the most memorable videos of the day, protesters tore down a street sign with Khamenei's name on it and began to stomp it.

It is impossible to tell if Ashura was a fluke or if it is the beginning of a new phase of the struggle against the regime. Over the next few days, people will commemorate the traditional Shii mourning ceremonies for the martyrs killed on Ashura. A few weeks down the line, the anniversary of the 1979 revolution comes around with its symbolic and practical importance. For the first time, martial law seems like a real possibility as the regime may get more desperate.

One thing is for certain: Ashura was the most important day for the opposition movement since immediately following the June election.