Part 13: The Rise of the Neo-Conservatives

Once the reformists’ efforts at change had been successfully stopped, conservatives would turn their focus on regaining control of the elected branches of the regime. At this point, a new group emerged within the regime and formed a coalition with the traditional conservatives to create an authoritarian state. They can be defined as neo-conservatives “who are ideologically Islamist, revolutionary in character, and populist in application and policy term”.

Part of their emergence has to do with increase American influence in the region in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. As the United States would first invade Afghanistan and then Iraq, Iran would be surrounded on two sides by American troops. The regime would further feel threatened by the Bush administration categorizing the Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil”. Moreover as details of the Iranian nuclear program began to emerge, tensions between Iran and the West would only continue to rise.

The Khatami administration had previously attempted a détente with the United States hoping for better relations, and this new hostility from the Bush administration discredited such an approach. Factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would begin to criticize the reformists for their soft stance against the United States and would call for a more hostile stand.

The IRGC was created in the aftermath of the revolution as the branch of the armed services that would be loyal to Khomeini and his Islamist faction in Iran. Overtime they evolved into the most influential branch of the military with shadow operations in the rest of the government and throughout the country. The IRGC would become a breeding ground for the neo-conservatives who were militaristic in nature and who wanted a more hostile foreign policy.

American military intervention in the Middle East and threats against the Iranian regime would give the neo-conservatives the perfect opportunity to gain prominence in the regime. Compared to the traditional conservatives, the authoritarianism of the neo-conservatives would be based less on religious principles and more on the classical militarism of fascist regimes. A former IRGC member, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would emerge as one of the new leaders of the neo-conservative movement and would lead them to the heights of power in the Islamic Republic.

This new alliance of traditional conservatives and neo-conservatives would first take aim at the 2003 local elections in an effort to turn the tide of reformist electoral victories. By this point, much of the reformists’ base in the population had become disillusioned at their inability to bring real change to the regime. Enthusiasm for the local election plummeted with 49% participation and only 12-15% turnout in the reformist strongholds of big cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad.

The conservative capitalized on this moment of weakness among the reformists and scored a smashing victory in the local elections. They won a majority of all the seats up for grabs around the country and were able to win 14 of the 15 seats in the pivotal Tehran City Council. This dominance in Iran’s biggest city and capital allowed the neo-conservatives to appoint Ahmadinejad as the Mayor of Tehran giving him a platform to eventually seek higher office.

Even with the vacuum of enthusiasm among the reformists’ base, the conservative coalition would use the authoritarian parts of the constitution to make victory certain in the 2004 Majlis elections. The Guardian Council would disqualify nearly 2500 reformist candidates including 80 sitting members of the Majlis. This unprecedented move shocked the reformists who contemplated a boycott, but ultimately decided against doing so as it would have handed the conservatives certain victory.

Even with the setbacks, “the participating reformists, now led by Majlis Speaker Karroubi, who had cobbled together a list of some 120 candidates, was confidently predicting a presence of some 100 seats in the Seventh Majlis”. Yet the reformists’ woefully underestimated the public’s unhappiness at both the regime and the reformists as turnout would plummet to 51% from a high of 69% in 2000 Majlis elections. Conservatives and neo-conservatives dominated the elections putting them back in control of the Majlis and dashing reformist dreams of passing progressive laws to change the regime.