Protests Go Late into Night

Here is a clip from last night that shows the protests did not end when the sun went down:



The woman is saying "in every corner and every intersection there are people setting fires and they [basij] are running amongst them, who are even more confused."

Former Member of Paliament and Disabled War Veteran Arrested

Ali Asghar Hadizadeh is a hero of the Iranian nation who became a paraplegic during the war with Iraq and he was a member of the sixth Iranian Parliament. Unfortunately, NIAC reports that he was arrested during a silent demonstration on July 15 although thankfully he was been released.

He was also a Paralmpics Gold Mentalist in addition to being the head of the Iranian blind team. After his release from prison, he resigned his post in protest of this regime. This is truly disgusting behavoir from the regime to treat a man who served his country like a criminal for wanting freedom.

Reza Aslan's Analysis of Thursday

A political commentator I respect a lot, Reza Aslan, talks about the importance of Thursday with Rachel Maddow:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Significance of Thursday

Thursday showed that the people of Iran are not going to be silenced and that they will continue their protest against the regime. There were horrible images of people being beaten for going to a cemetery to pray for the dead. The regime may be able to suppress protests, but they are losing support everyday. Every time the regime jails a cleric, kills a young Iranian, or does not allow for religious ceremonies to take place, it is losing the very religious moral and religious authority it needs to rule the country. The opposition is taking every opportunity to protest in order to further erode the regime and its ability to govern.

For more background on Thursday, here a previous post in which I explain the religious reason why people protested on the 40th day that people were killed.

Also here is a previous explanation to help you better understand why it is so important to celebrate the life of martyrs.

Regime Arrests Two Great Filmmakers

Jafar Panahi

Mahnaz Mohammadi and Jafar Panahi are two great Iranian film directors, but sadly they were arrested at the memorial today for the martyrs. Panahi directed one of my favorite Iranians films "the circle" which chronicles the struggles of women in Iran. Reports are coming in that say that they have been released, but this has not been confirmed.

Sohrab's Brother Reads the Names of Martyrs

The famous martyr Sohrab's brother reads the names of others who have been killed by the regime:

More Clips of Nationwide Protest

This one is from Shiraz in the Southwest of Iran:



This one is Rasht that was reported earlier from the North of the country:



Another good clip from Neda's grave in Tehran:



Finally protesting in the bus:

Protests Spread Across the Country

The protests are not just confined to Tehran, but are taking place in other parts of the country too. NIAC reports a protest in the Northern city of Rasht.

Here is video of a silent protest in the centeral city of Esfahan:



Also more video of the protests in Vanak square in Tehran. The people are chating "Independence, Freedom, and the Iranian Republic":

More Video From Cemetery

More dramatic video of chaos at the cemetery where Neda is buried, the government cannot stop the people from mourning the martyrs:

Neda's Mother Speaks Out

Here is a great interview that Neda's mother gave with the BBC.

A popular chant during today's demonstrations was "Neda is not dead. The government is dead." True words for a woman who died for freedom:

"It was all about being young and feeling passionate about freedom"

Protests Escalate

Reports are coming in of more protests in Tehran and clashes with police, but it is difficult to get an exact idea of what is going on. The LA Times is doing some good reporting. Here is the latest video showing the protests and clahses with police:

Clips from Today

Here are some clips from today. The crowd chants “Ya Hussein! Mir Hussein!”, "Death to the Dictator" and other opposition slogans:

Police Break Up Memorial, Mousavi Flees Event

Iranian security forces will not even although a group of people to mourn the dead at the Behesht-e Zahra cemetery. Reportedly thousands showed up to mourn those killed by the regime especially at the grave of the famous martyr Neda.

Mousavi arrived at the ceremony to honor Neda and pray for her, but he was surrounded by police and forced to flee the event. Today shows the regime still is willing to crackdown on peaceful protesters, but it also shows the people of Iran will continue to protest.

Key Player: Mehdi Karroubi

Mehdi Karroubi was the other reformist candidate to run in the recent elections. Due to the fraudulent nature of the election, he supposedly only claimed a little over 300,000 or .85% of the votes for a man who received 17% of the vote in the 2005 elections. A joke after the election was that Karroubi would have received more votes if just his family and friends were counted. However he seriously did have more campaign volunteers than people who voted for him in the official tally. This low number of votes is perhaps the ultimate rebuke for a man who has often upset the hardliners in the regime. After the election, Karroubi has been able to work effectively with the other reformist candidate Mousavi to form a united block against the regime.

Karroubi was trained as a cleric and studied under Khomeini. He was imprisoned several times under the Shah for his political activism against his regime. After the Revolution, Karroubi ran the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Martyr's Foundation along with later being elected to the Parliament. From 1989 to 1992, he served as Speaker of the Parliament and stood in opposition to many of the policies of then President Rafsanjani. He also help found and was the head the Association of Combatant Clerics which today is one of the main reformist clerical organizations.

Karroubi was again elected Speaker of the Parliament from 2000 to 2004 during a period where the reformists had a majority in the Parliament and reformist Khatami was President. Despite this control of the elected portions of the government, the reformist agenda was stopped by the intervention of the hardliners in particular those who controlled the Guardian Council which has veto power over the Parliament. Karroubi was criticized for not standing up to the hardliners when the reformists were in power and allowing the hardliners to eventually take complete control of the government.

In 2005, Karroubi ran for president in an election that saw voter apathy and dissatisfaction with the refromists' inablity to bring about real change to the regime. He did not make it into the run off round of the election where Ahmadinejad eventually won. Karroubi claimed unfair manipulation of the election by the regime, but no large spread opposition to Ahmadinejad's election emerged.

After the 2005 election, he created his own political party and newspaper called Etemad-e Melli. Karroubi once again presented himself as a candidate in the 2009 election even though Mousavi was the choice of most of the reform movement. He refused calls to step aside in defference to Mousavi, but it ultimately did not matter given the fradulent election results. After the eleciton, Karroubi and Mousavi quickly combined their resources to organize opposition to the eleciton of Ahmadinejad. They have effectively worked togheter and are frequently seen together at events to oppose the regime.

Karroubi is one of the highest political figures within the reform movement and is also a respected cleric. He has a progressive view when it comes to freedom, democracy, human rights, woman's rights, and minority rights in Islam. Although largely overshadowed by Mousavi in the recent movement against the regime, Karroubi remains an important figure in the reform movement and he will be in the middle of developments that come out of Iran.

Iran's Police Chief Admits Violations

In a stunning admission, Iran's police chief Ismail Ahmadi-Moqaddam said that certain officers did not act properly during the recent unrest.

"Some of our officers went to extremes during these events and caused damage while pursuing protesters " and he added "nothing should cause police officers to break the law in any way."

Such an admission of any guilt is very unusual since the regime has argued that all the damage and violence has been caused by the opposition. It is yet another example of the regime trying to ease tensions by admitting that it did some wrongdoings during the recent protests. Ahmadi-Moqaddam said that the violations brought "psychological damage" to the public and said he would punish those who broke the law. Even though this is unlikely, it shows the regime at least wants to present itself as upholding law and order even while it is undermining it.

Possible Trials along with More Releases

The government has moved forward to prosecute 20 people currently in jail for "sabotage" in the wake of the recent unrest. They have also been accused of working with the outlawed opposition group Mujahedin which conveniently had one of its camps in Iraq raided by Iraqi forces earlier this week. If the prosecutions move forward, they will be little more than show trials based on trumped up charges.

On more positive news, Iran's Prosecutor General said that more prisoners will be realeased later this week to add to 140 that have already been released. Hopefully the coninued domestic and international pressure will force the regime to treat prisoners with greater dignity and ensure that no more are killed in jail by this regime.

The Martyrdom of Amir Javadifar

Another young Iranian has been brutally killed by this regime in prison, Amir Javadifar was "a student of industrial management in Qazvin" and someone who just wanted freedom for Iran

He had been arrested during the July 9 protests and his family was informed that he died in prison. Perhaps the only consolation is that his and other recent deaths in prison have led to greater oversight of the prisoners with the release of 140 yesterday.

Here is a video tribute:

Mousavi and Kerroubi to Honor Martyrs

Despite not getting a permit to hold an official memorial, Mousavi and Kerroubi will visit the graves of those martyred in the recent protests.

What remains to be seen is how many people will join them on Thursday for a public expression of mourning for those killed. It will be 40 days since the death of many of the protesters including the famous martyr Neda. We must wait and see if the regime will continue to use brutal tactics against those who are taking to the streets to peacefully mourn those killed.

Death to Russia

Iran and Russia have started a joint maritime operation in the Caspian Sea to "enhance the safety of transportation." This seems to be the first such operation in the history of Russo-Iranian relations and comes at a time when the two countries have become increasingly close. NIAC has a piece about how this exercise and the closeness between Iran and Russia signal a new alliance against the United States reminiscent of Cold War alliances.

This exercise, Russian assistance in Iran's nuclear program, and the quick recognition of Ahmadinejad as President in a bizarre trip to Moscow a few days after the election all have given ammunition to the opposition to present Ahmadinejad as a puppet of Russia. Iranians have always been weary of foreign intervention, and Russia has always been the superpower to the North of Iran.

During the declining years of the Persian empire, Russia and Iran would have small wars in the Caucuses over control of the region with Russia eventually becoming dominant. During World War II, Soviet troops along with American and British occupied Iran. The Western allies agreed to leave in 1945, but the Soviets claimed that a region of Northern Iran called Azerbaijan was actually an independent country that was conveniently a Soviet puppet state. The Soviets continued to occupy Iranian territory and it was only with threats from the United States that the Soviets backed down.

Iran was staunchly anti-Soviet during the reign of the Shah given his close alliance with the United States. Many communists were arrested and killed, and prime minister Mossaddeq was overthrown because he was seen as possibly too close to the Soviets. After the 1979 Revolution, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan to Iran's East and Iranians began to worry increasing Soviet aggression into Muslim lands. In fact a popular slogan after the Revolution was that America was the big Satan and and the Soviet Union was the little Satan.

That all changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the weakening of Russia. The great threat to the North no longer seemed so scary and Russia was a supplier of critical supplies that the rest of world would not provide as a result of sanctions. Given the increasing anti-American nature of Russian foreign policy, the two countries have become even closer in recent years.

Yet a major part of 1979 Revolution was a desire to rid Iran of all foreign intervention wherever it came from. In a modification of the chant that was shouted during the previous revolution, Iranians are now chanting "Death to Russia" as the supporter of a repressive regime in Iran and a foreign influence in the country. The opposition is trying to paint Ahmadinejad and the regime as a puppet of Russia just as the Shah was a puppet of America. In this way, the opposition is using Iranians nationalistic pride against a regime that claims to be protecting Iran against foreign influence, but in many ways is inviting that influence from the North.

1776 vs. 2009

This Washington Times Editorial compares the recent declarations of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazari and another declaration by Thomas Jefferson 233 years earlier.

Montazari is one of the most progressive Ayatollahs in Iran and is in fact the highest religious authority in the country based on rank. His call for greater freedom and democracy in Iran echoes those made by Jefferson in America.

"The grand ayatollah believes that government is instituted by man as a social contract, with rights and responsibilities on both the part of the people and the government. "The state belongs to the people," he said. "It is neither my property or yours." Compare this to our Declaration of Independence, which states that "Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed."

Although both men were influenced by ideas from outside their countries, they have developed those ideas that uniquely fit the tradition and background of their nation. What Montazeri and the other reformists present is a version of democracy that is not copied from the West, but it is rather a home grown version for Iran. It is a form of democracy based not just on basic universal rights, but also firmly grounded in Shii Islamic principles. Just as America led the Western world to adopt democracy, Iran has the potential to lead the Islamic world to accept a version of democracy adopted for its own culture.

Hardliners Threaten Ahmadinejad with Coup?

In a bold open letter, the Islamic Engineers Society call on Ahmadinejad to fall in line behind the Supreme Leader or face the consequnces. The group is made up of engineers that are close to the regime and the hardliners. It is particularly close to the engineer speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Larijani.

The group tells Ahmadinejad, "it seems you want to be the sole speaker and do not want to hear other voices… therefore it is our duty to convey to you the voice of the people." In particular the group seems upset with Ahmadinejad's selection of Mashie as an adviser and his defiance against the wishes of Khamenei, "it is notable to ask why Rahim-Masha'i is not dismissed despite the Leader's demand while some of the ministers are sacked because of their opposition to your decision."

The most interesting part of the letter brings up former Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddeq and former president Abolhassan Bani-Sadr who were eventually driven out of power. The group claims that they suffered this faith for not listening to the country's religous leaders and ask Ahmadinejad to think about what happened to them. This seems like a thinly veiled threat to Ahmadinejad to fall into line or possibly be removed from power.

Such a direct challenge to Ahmadinejad by hardliners shows growing divisions within those running the government and their concerns about Ahamdinejad's amount of power. Given the exteremly unpopular nature of Ahmadinejad with the people of Iran, perhaps the hardliners are positioning to revome Ahmadinejad as the face of the regime. Under this scenerio, the hardliners would present a less polarizing figure as President to the public in hopes of calming the unrest. Obviously this is just a theory for the recent conflict within the hardliners, but anything seems possible now witht the growing division among the hardliners and the growing unrest among the people of Iran.

If a reformist sent this letter to Ahmadinejad, he would have been accused by the regime of planning a coup t overthrow the system. This letter to Ahmadinejad is perhaps the perfect example of the old adage, "you live by the sword; you die by the sword".

Ahmadinejad Becomes Minister of Intelligence?

In an unusual move Ahmadinejad names names Majid Alavi as acting Minister of Intelligence, but names himself caretaker minister until a new cabinet is formed.

Alavi will "observe the conduct of the deputies and managers of the Intelligence Ministry and submit reports to the president." Essentially that seems to mean that Ahmadinejad is the one that ultimately the head of the Ministry of Intelligence with Alavi being his deputy who oversees opearations. This move creates a legal limbo in wich Alavi is not technically Minster of Intelligence with that title apparently going to Ahmadinejad in a new power grab.

Government Does Not Give Permit For Memorial

Following Mousavi and Kerroubi's request for a permit to hold a memorial to those who were killed by the regime, the government has denied a permit to hold a rally this Thursday.

Clearly the government does not want to remember those who have been killed, but the people will probably come out anyway. Interesting to see how this unfolds on Thursday.

140 Prisoners Released

To follow up this story about the head of Iran's judiciary ordering some prisoners released, today 140 prisoners who were held on minor charges were allowed to leave prison. It seems as if the outcry from inside and outside Iran is forcing the regime to lessen its inhuman and illegal actions.

Iraqi Troops Attack Mujahedin e-Khalq Camp

Iraqi government troops attacked Camp Ashraf which is the home to some 3,000 members of an opposition Iranian group called the Mujahedin e-Khalq.

Simply known as the Mujahedin to most Iranians, it is a group that was founded during the Shah's rule in Iran to overthrow the monarchy. The group shifted its focus to overthrowing the Islamic Republic with the 1979 Revolution. The Mujahedin was designated as a terrorist organization by the United States in 1970s when it started attacking Americans in Iran as a result of American support of the Shah. Later the group started to attack high ranking officials of the Islamic Republic including an attack on Khamenei before he was Supreme Leader that left his right arm paralyzed.

The group has been relatively quite in recent years and claims to have renounced violence in 2001. Many members of the group relocated to Iraq during Saddam Hussein's rule because he gave them shelter in order to oppose the regime in Iran. During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, America allowed the group to remain in place and did not intervenee much with the group. In fact, Iran offered to hand over captured Al-Qaida members to the United States in exchange for members of the Mujahedin, but America refused.

Contrary to their name, the group is rather secular in nature and wants to completely remove the Islamic Repbulic. Earlier this year, American troops handed security of the region of the camp to Iraqi forces. The Mujahedin claims that the Iranian government has ordered Iraq to raid the camp and hand over the members. Perhaps this is part of the crackdown on the recent unrest in order to show that the regime is firmly in power. It will also test how much autonomy America allows Iraq to have in conducting its internal affairs even if that benefits Iran.

However, it is important to remember that the Mujahedin do not support Mousavi's and the reformists' "Green" movement in Iran. They advocate a complete change of the current system, but have not been a major player in the recent unrest within Iran although they did hold protests outside of Iran against the government.

Ahmadinejad's Minister of Industry Guilty of Fraud

Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian

Just when you thought Ahmadinejad's cabinet nightmare could not get worse, his Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian has been found guilty of fraud.

The conviction deals with Mehrabian and an associate falsely claiming to have come up with the idea for an "earthquake saferoom" in a 2005 book. The court did not dole out any punishment, but did order Mehrabian and his associate have their name removed from the registration for the design.

While this might not seem like a big deal, Ahmadinejad probably wanted to reappoint Mehrabian to another term as his Minister of Industry. Mehrabian is a close associate of Ahmadinejad and this ruling gives ammunition to hardliners who want to remove allies of Ahmadinejad from the cabinet. In order to serve another term as Minister of Industry, Mehrabian would need a fresh vote of confidence from parliament and this ruling could be used to deny him another term. According to the AP, "Mohsen Koohkan, a prominent hard-line lawmaker, said Monday that parliament will consider Mehrabian's conviction if Ahmadinejad tried to keep him in his post in the next government".

I guess we just have to wait and see what the next crazy development comes out of Ahmadinejad's cabinet.

Reformist Cleric Explains Different Views of Islam

As I mentioned here, Mohsen Kadivar is one of the top members of the reform movement currently in the United States. NIAC has a great piece about a speech he gave detailing the different views of Islam between the hardliners and reformers currently in Iran:

“Black Islam (not to be confused with the Nation of Islam) is the Islam of the current government of Iran,” explained Kadivar. In Black Islam, the people’s obedience and allegiance to the leaders is important and the rulers abuse religion to advance their own agenda. To them, “votes have no meaning because the decisions made by the Velayat Fagih (guardianship of the jurist) are divine.”

"Kadivar pointed out the government’s attention to detail when choosing to use the word, velayat which means jurist. They did not use the word vekalat, which means power of the attorney, because all of their actions would have to be done with the permission of the people. Their careful choice of the word jurist, gives them the power to regulate the affairs of society, because “they know better than anyone else.”

"In Green Islam is the Islam practiced by Mousavi, “The leaders respond and listen to their people, they are the workers, not the people!” He continued, “The Iranian people are the leaders of their own land and it is a waste when a leader stays in power when the people don’t want him!”

I will be writing more in the future about the theological and philosophical differences on Islam between the two camps in Iran, but it is important to remember that their are two versions of Islam in Iran right now. Mousavi and the rest of the opposition believe in a version of Islam that supports freedom and democracy. Ahmadinejad and the hardliners believe in a version of Islam that allows them to do whatever they want.

Key Player: Ali Khamenei

Under the Iranian Constitution, no one has more authority than Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and is theoretically the person who oversees the proper function of the entire government. In this role, the Supreme Leader is supposed to be a fairly neutral arbiter of disputes. Khamenei has tried to play this role during the last 20 years as Supreme Leader, but his steadfast support of Ahmadinejad in the current crisis has brought into question his ability to be Supreme Leader.

Khamenei started studying to become a cleric which eventually led him to Iran's holiest city of Qom. It was there that he fell under the influence of Ayatollah Khomeini and became a follower of the leader of the 1979 Revolution. He was a close aide of Khomeini and helped him develop the Islamic Republic. Khamenei suffered a serious assassination attempt in 1981 that paralyzed his right arm leading him to earn the title of a living martyr. Later that same year, Khamenei was elected President of Iran after the previous President was assassinated.

Khamenei helped lead the country during the Iran-Iraq war and developed close ties to the nation's military and Republican Guard during this time. In 1989 after the death of Khomeini, Khamenei was selected as the new Supreme Leader because it was widely believed that Khomeni wanted him to be the next leader.

The decision was controversial because Khamenei was not a very high ranking cleric and had not reached the rank of Ayatollah. Although Khamenei is called Ayatollah today, it is mainly out of respect because he still does not have the religious credentials to merit such a title. Thus much of the upper religious establishment looked down on Khamenei's selection because of his low ranking. The fact that the top religious leader in the country did not become the Supreme Leader weakened Khomeini's argument that his government was based on religious legitimacy.

Khamenei maintained power by playing the different elements of the regime against each other and never letting any one side get too powerful. This worked effectively for nearly 20 years as he has been able to hold on to power. However with the growing strength of the opposition movement in 2009, Khamenei was so threatened that he might of felt that he had no choice but to completely support Ahmadinejad and the hardliners.

This caused him to support a clearly stolen election which had never happened in the history of Islamic Republic. This blatant violation of the constitution greatly weakened Khamenei's position as Supreme Leader and undermined public and religious support for his rule. Khamenei has thrown his entire lot with the hardliners and that might be his ultimate downfall as the people of Iran fight back against this repressive regime.

Head of Judiciary Speaks Out On Prisoners

The head of Iran's judiciary Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahrudi has called for a review on the treatment and status of those arrested in the wake of the election within the week. He also ordered those prisoners arrested for minor crimes to be released on bail soon.

The judiciary has said that 300 people have been arrested in the wake of the unrest, but the number is probably higher. This ruling is a victory of sorts for the opposition because it states that the prisoners have some basic rights to know why they are being held and treated with some sort of dignity. Mohsen Rezai who was a conservative alternative to Ahmadinejad in the elecion praised the desicion, "I thank you for your order to clarify the fate of the detainees within one week." One of Rezai's top advisor's son Mohsen Rohallamini was killed in prison by the regime so Rezai must be feeling the pressure to resolve the prisoner situation.

Ayatollah Shahrudi is a hardliner, but it seems like he believes in the basic importance of the rule of law and order. Hopefully his ruling will allow for greater rights and possibly hearings for those who have been unjustly arrested by this regime. Perhaps Mohsen Rohallamini's tragic death in prison has had the positive consequence of bringing attention to plight of those still in prison.

Ahmadinejad Finds a Technicality

So I reported here that Ahmadinejad might face a vote of no confidence in parliament because he has lost so many members of his cabinet Ministers.

Well it looks like Ahmadinejad might be able to get off on a technicality. NIAC is reporting that Ahmadinejad has technically not accepted the resignation of his Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Saffar Harandi. Theoretically, this means that Harandi is still officially part of the cabinet even if he does not report for work.

What this all means is that Ahmadinejad will probably not face a vote of confidence in the last 8 days of his first term. Clearly not accepting a resignation in order to not deal with parliament is not a good way to end a term. This can only mean great things for his second term.

Anyways, Ahmadinejad still needs all of his ministers approved for his new term and must also face a vote of confidence for his entire administration in order to legally move forward in his second term. As we can see with this disaster, Ahmadinejad might have a tough time getting that approval.

A New Phase

Time Magazine has an excellent article about the new phase of opposition from the people of Iran.

While the world has turned its attention largely away from Iran, the people are still fighting back in new and subtle ways. Obviously large scale street protests are difficult given the brutal nature of this regime. Instead the people are boycotting products advertised on state television and doing "flash" protests in which a group of people quickly say "Down with the Dictator" a few times and then scatter before security forces arrive. This may not seem like a way of quickly toppling the regime, but it clear the will of the people in not broken. The hardliners in power are fighting with each other and the overall situation in Iran is shaky. This movement may take some time to bring down the current regime, but the people of Iran are still working towards that ultimate goal. As Time says:

"The current uprising is nowhere near as widespread as that of 1979. Yet the activism is creating a new political space in Iran. The public is defining its own agenda, with Rafsanjani, Mousavi and other opposition figures responding to sentiment on the street rather than directing it. After meeting on July 20 with the families of people detained following the election, Mousavi warned the power structure, "You are facing something new: an awakened nation, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievements."

If You Want to See What the Otherside Is Saying

Obviously I don't cover much of what the regime says because it is mainly propaganda that does not reflect what is really going on in Iran. Yet the regime does have a propaganda machine that has brainwashed some people so what they are doing is still important in that sense.

Fareed Zakaria interviewed Tehran University Professor Mohammed Morandi and Zakaria does a good job of calling out Morandi for all the absurd things that he says. Yet if you want to get a sense for the lies the regime is saying, I have posted the interview so you know also what the regime is constantly telling people in Iran. Morandi seems like an intelligent guy and you can tell he does not believe what he is saying, but he sadly does not have the guts to stand up to this regime:

Ahmadinejad Cabinet Insanity Continues

Safar Harandi

Reports are coming in that the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Safar Harandi has resigned. Ahmandinejad has already fired his Minister of Intelligence and had apparently also wanted to fire Harandi, but did not do so fearing that would force a vote of confidence with parliament. Apparently Harandi in his letter of resignation said that Ahmadinejad did not want him to serve so he would not show up to his post on Monday. The importance of this is that this resignation theoretically should force a vote of confidence in parliament over Ahmadinejad's cabinet.

Article 136 of the Iranian Constitution deals with the removal of Ministers:

"The President can dismiss the ministers and in such a case he must obtain a vote of confidence for the new minister(s) from the Assembly. In case half of the members of the Council of Ministers are changed after the government has received its vote of confidence from the Assembly, the government must seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Assembly."

There are 21 Ministers in the Presidential cabinet and during Ahmadinejad's first term 11 have been removed or resigned. That means that more than half of the ministers have changed so a new vote of confidence is needed from parliament to legitimize the government. The legal status of the Ahamdinejad administration is not clear and it is in a sort of limbo until the vote happens in the parliament. It is not clear if or when parliament will take up a new vote because this has never happened in the history of the Islamic Republic.

It is important to note that Ahmadinejad's new term is set to begin in just eight days so all this drama from his first term is going to end soon anyways. Even if this current crisis is not resolved, Ahmadinejad will be saved in a way because of his new term. However, all the Ministers for his second term must be approved by the parliament even if the same person is keeping the same position. Clearly this can lead to some very tense and important battles for key ministries as the process goes forward. Moreover, Ahmadinejad would have needed a vote of confidence to approve his new cabinet anyways for his second term.

The whole insanity within Ahmadinejad's cabinet and VP choice shows us what happens when laws and the constitution are not respected. When an election is so clearly stolen, all the supposed rules and regulations governing the government also go out the window. What we are seeing right now is an anarchic situation in which all the hardliners are trying to make power grabs without regard to the law. The whole point of happening votes of confidence by parliament is to set up a Western style system of Checks and Balances, but such a system does not make sense in a dictatorship. When elections don't matter, then democratic institutions they select such as the Presidency, Cabinet, and Parliament lose their meaning and function.

July 26 Protests in Tehran

In a protest to celebrate the martyr Mohsen Rohallamini, a crowd gathered at Vali-asr Street close to the regime's TV propaganda building. The crowd chanted "God is Great", "Death to the Dictator", "Death to Russia", and "Down with the Taliban, whether in Kabul or Tehran". This is a clever move because the Taliban and Iranian government are bitter enemies and yet the protesters are equating the hardliners in power to Taliban-like extremist. Here is a video that shows the protests will not stop:

Rafsanjani Doesn't Back Down

Responding to a call from 50 of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts to be more supportive of Supreme Leader Khameini, Rafsanjani says that he stands by his comments during the July 17 Friday Prayers.

Rafsanjani who is head of the Assembly of Experts has demonstrated that he is willing to stand up to pressure from Hardliners to back down. Yet the call from the Assembly of Experts does kill the rumors that Rafsanjani is working behind the scenes to remove Khameini because this statement shows he does not have the votes to make such a move. The Assembly of Experts can theoritically remove the Supreme Leader if he is not doing his job.

Ahmadinejad Fires Intelligence Minister

Ahmadinejad dismisses his Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei for reportedly not supporting his pick of Mashaei as first VP. Just as we thought the whole Mashaei thing was dying down, Ahmadinejad has new cabinet drama to worry about.

The reports suggest he also wanted to sack his Ministers of Labor and Culture for also opposing the pick, but he did not want to start a conflict with Parliament and a possible vote of no confidence.

It will be interesting if Ahmadinejad can now get his new picks for his cabinet through the parliament which must approve all new ministers. It is clear that a conflict is brewing between Ahmadinejad who wants to run a relatively independent administration as President and the hardliners who view his presidency as a puppet of their power. We must wait and see if the opposition can exploit this division with the hardliners to bring down all those in power.

The Importance of Becoming a Martyr

The famous martyr Neda

In conjunction with the opposition's plan to mourn those who have been killed by the regime 40 days after their death, labeling someone a martyr has special significance in Shii Islam and for the opposition movement. In the West, martyrdom is often associated with suicide bombers and jokes about getting virgins in heaven. Yet in Shii Islam when someone dies for a cause, labeling them a martyr conjures up images of a struggle between justice and tyranny.

It all begins with the third Imam of Shii Imam Hussein who was the grandson of the prophet Muhammad. Shii Muslims believe he was the rightful ruler of all Muslims, but his power had been usurped by the Sunni Caliph Yazid. Instead of accepting the unjust rule of Yazid, Hussein rebelled against impossible odds. Hussein and his followers were brutally slaughtered in Karbala by the forces of Yazid in 688. From that moment, Hussein became a martyr because he stood up for the importance of justice in the face of tyranny. His death is commemorated by Shiis in the important holiday of Ashura in which the faithful mourn for Hussein.

Thus in Shii Islam, labeling someone as a martyr links your struggle to Hussein's struggle for justice. It paints the individual who has been killed as the similar to Hussein who died for justice and paints the killer of the individual as the equivalent of Yazid who is an evil and tyrannical figure. Khomeini effectively labeled people who were killed by the Shah as martyrs in the 1979 Revolution. During the Iran-Iraq war, every soldier who was killed was considered a martyr and huge memorials to the dead can still be seen everywhere in Iran. In fact a popular legend during the war was that Saddam Hussein and Yazid both come from the Iraqi city of Tikrit .

Not only are individuals labeled martyrs, a cult is created around them to celebrate both their life and sacrifice.That is why you have seen such a emphasis on the death of Neda and the importance of immortalizing her. Indeed the world has caught on to this very Iranian tradition and have also taken Neda's death to symbolize the movement. The opposition has done a great job at creating effective martyrs out of Neda, Sohrab, and sadly many others. In Iran it is not viewed as exploiting their deaths, but rather using their sacrifice to continue the struggle they died for.

The story of Hussein also shows why the concept of justice is so important in Shii Islam. So the next time you hear the opposition calling someone a martyr, remember that they are trying to paint their struggle as one between justice and tyranny. The reformists argue that freedom and democracy will lead to Hussein's desire for a just society while the hardliners dictatorship creates an unjust society. It is a very effective tool to fight a supposedly religious government with religious imagery suggesting that their rule is the epiphany of evil and tyranny. Also it allows the opposition to protest the tyranny of the regime in a ceremony that is ostensibly a religious ritual.

40 Days

Mousavi and Kerroubi are asking the government for permission to hold public memorial services to mark 40 days since the death of protesters after the election. They want to do a memorial to mark the 40 days since June 20 when many were killed which is also the day of the death of the most famous victim of the recent crackdown, Neda.

In Shii Islam and other cultures too, 40 days after an individuals dies is the most important day of mourning and honoring the person who has passed away. The organizers of the 1979 Islamic Revolution famously used this ritual of mourning to create a cycle of protests. Essentially a protest would occur and some people would be killed. 40 days later another protest would occur to remember those killed in the first protest and then more people would be killed. Then you can see how this creates a cycle than can keep going.

Yet what is interesting is the fact that the reformist want to work within the boundaries of the law with this request so that no one else is killed. This request places pressure on the government to allow a religious mourning ceremony and also shows the reformists desire to work with the system making it harder to deny their request.

It will be interesting to see what the regime will do because there seems no reason why they would allow the memorial service given its desire to stop the unrest. Yet at the same time people will likely come out anyways and does the regime risk killing more people to create the same cycle at 1979?

Live Report: LA Rally For Iran

So I just got back from working security at the United4Iran rally in Bruin Plaza at UCLA. There was an estimated crowd of several thousands. Most of those people were Iranian-Americans, but there was also a substantial amount of non-Iranians.

Iranian-American comedian Maz Jobrani was the MC and there were many prominent speakers such as political analyst Reza Aslan. For the most part, everything went smoothly and we brought a lot of attention to what is going on in Iran to the local media.

One thing that was different about this rally from others in LA I have attended was the near universal unity of message. Regardless of the political belief of the people attending the rally, all of them want human rigths and freedom for the people of Iran. That is what the rally focused on and that was the message the world heard from all of the rallies around the world today.

Here are some pictures from the LA event:


Update Video:

Fresh Protests in Tehran to Mark July 25 Rallies

AP reports that there were small scale street protests with the police breaking them up on July 25 as Iranians joined the rest of the world in protesting for human rights.

At night the chants of God is Great went out across the city showing that the Iranian people cannot be silenced and the protests will continue.

Here is a video of the protests

More Images From Today's Protests

United4Iran is reporting "8,000 people at the event in Paris, 4,000 in Stockholm, 3,000 in Amsterdam, 2,500 in New York, 2,000 in London."

Times Square in New York City


A march to the United Nations


London




A report from CNN

Criminals Supproting Other Criminals

The Central Asian Republic of Kyrgyzstan had an election this week which was widely seen as fraudulent in much the same way as Iran's election.

There was a rally planned today in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, in support of the people of Iran as part of the world wide day of protests.

Sadly it appears as if the government of Kyrgyzstan does not like all this talk about opposing stolen elections and has arrested 8 human rights activists.

If the reports are true, these are despicable actions by the government of Kyrgyzstan. Those in power must respect the human rights of their own citizens and support protests against the violations of human rights in Iran.

I guess the governments of Iran and Kyrgyzstan are "thick as thieves".

Ahmadinejad Appoints Mashaei As Top Adviser

In a move to show that he still has some power in the system, Ahmadinejad appoints the man he was forced to remove as his first VP to become a senior adviser and Head of the Presidential Office.

Ahmadinejad is not the type of guy to go down without a fight and without getting at least partially his way. This just shows you he doesn't want to look like a complete puppet of the hardliners behind the scenes.

Large Mainstream Media Coverage Of Today's Protests

Thankfully it seems that mainstream media is devoting a lot of coverage to what is going on today in cities around the world. Here are just two reports from CNN and USA Today.

Looks like a good turn out in a lot of cities internationally and let's hope the US turn out will be even bigger.

July 25 in Sydney, Australia


Also this image from Berlin where almost 2,000 people reportedly came out.

A Broad Coalition Against The Regime

Here is an Excellent Article about two Iranians, singer Googoosh and journalist Akbar Ganji.

Googoosh was a Western style pop singer inside Iran during the time of the Shah and was one of the biggest stars in the country. In is his youth, Akbar Ganji was a devout follower of Khomeini and a strong supporter of the Islamic Revolution.

Yet these two very different Iranians met at the UN this week in a hunger strike to protest what is going no in Iran. Although they have both been exiled from Iran, it shows you that the regime has alienated almost all sectors of the Iranian population.

Key Player: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is one of the few remaining high-ranking non-hardline members of the current government. Rafsanjani has been called the second most powerful man in Iran after the Supreme Leader, but it is hard to gauge his actual influence given the current power grab by the hardliners. He is the head of a 86 member clerical body within the government called the Assembly of Experts which selects the Supreme Leader and can theoretically remove him. In the immediate aftermath of the election unrest, there were rumors that Rafsanjani was trying to remove Khameini, but he probably does not have the support to do so as of right now. Rafsnajani is also the head of the Expediency Council which was set up to resolve conflicts between the Majlis (parliament) and another clerical body called the Guardian Council which has veto power over the Majlis. In reality, the Expediency Council does not do much or have much power.

Rafsanjani represents to the reformists their biggest advocate within the regime. He has often been described as a pragmatist, moderate, and centrist who would like better relations with the West. At his recent speech at Friday Prayers, Rafsanjani seemed to indicate his support for the opposition movement and clearly challenged Khameini's desire to let the election protest die down. All of this comes from one of the founding fathers of the Islamic Republic.

Rafsanjani player an integral role in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the creation of the Islamic Republic. He was very close to Khomeini and was also good friends with Khameini in years following the Revolution. In 1980 he survived a very serious assassination attempt and went on to become Chairman of the Majlis. Rafsanjani is also a clerical and is often called an Ayatollah out of respect since he probably doesn't have the credentials to merit such a title. Coming from humble origins, Rafsanjani has become perhaps the richest man in Iran and many have accused him of corruption to earn his riches.

Both Rafsanjani and Khameini were at Khomeini's bedside when he died and yet Khomeini designated Khameini to be his successor as Supreme Leader. From this point, a competition between the two men has been on going for power within the Islamic Republic. Rafsanjani went on to be President of Iran from 1989-1997 in the years following the war with Iraq. He advocated a less ideological approach to government and was given credit for post-war reconstruction. At home he advocated free market economic reforms while abroad he sought greater engagement with the rest of the world.

After his presidency, Rafsanjani remained active in the government and many people believed he was really the man running the country from behind the scenes. Yet in 2005 the seeds of discord were sowed when Rafsanjani ran again for President and faced Ahmadinejad in a run off to see who would become President of Iran. Ahmadinejad ran on a anti-corruption platform and contrasted his own humble lifestyle with the enormous wealth of Rafsanjani. In an election filled with voter apathy and boycotts from the reformist as a result of strict candidate vetting, Ahmadinejad won vowing to fight the power of the elite.

Ever since, Rafsanjani has been trying to counter Ahmadinejad and the hardliners sway within the government. Some have argued that Rafsanjani has only spoken out against the regime because of the threat that Ahmadinejad's populist rhetoric poses to Rafsanjani's wealth. While Rafsanjani has made statements supporting greater freedom, it is hard to tell how much he actually agrees with the reformists belief in human rights and democracy. In many ways, the relationship between Rafsanjani and the reformists is one of convenience. They both don't like Ahmadinejad and need each other to fight the regime. The reformists need Rafsanjani's sway within the system while Rafsanjani needs the reformists popularity on the street.

Whatever the case, Rafsanjani's Friday Sermon put him squarely on the side of the reformists since he called for the release of political prisoners and made a reformist argument that there were democratic components in early Islam. Also, the fact that the government let him give the sermon at all when they knew he would probably say pro-reformist statements demonstrates the sway he still has within the regime. Yet at the same time, his daughter was arrested for a brief time in the recent crackdown perhaps as a warning to check his criticism of the regime. Rafsanjani's importance is that he is a powerful well-connected man still in the government who despises the hardliners and what they stand for. It is hard to tell how much power Rafsanjani has left and what actions he will take to fight the regime, but all that is certain is that he will be a key component to the continuing unrest in Iran.

Reminder to Attend Protests Tomorrow

Makes sure you go to one of the protests around the world on Saturday July 25 to support the people of Iran.

Here is Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi's message of support:

Ahmadinejad Caves

You have to give it to him, Ahmadinejad held out pretty long. Yet he has caved into the hardliners and dismissed his first VP Esfandiar Rahim Mashai.

It is clear now that Ahmadinejad is a puppet of the hardliners behind the scenes. Even though the Supreme Leader is higher in the system, the president is supposed to have some theoretical powers such as being able to pick his own cabinet. Yet, Ahmadinejad could not even pick his right hand man and his presidency is little more than facade for a hardliner dictatorship. The importance of this episode is that it shows that Ahmadinejad is not the driving force for what is going on in the regime.

A Very Brave Mother

Parvin Fahimi, the mother of Sohrab Aarabi who was killed by the regime and has become a symbol of the opposition movement, goes in front of the Tehran City Council and speaks out against the government. Part I and Part II of the video in Farsi.

Here is an english transcript of the same speech with a part of it here:

"Now I just want to know why my son has passed away, is it just for the vote he had given? Or for the protests or whatever else? My 19 year old child who has not yet even been given the entrance examination for his Bachelors Degree, a child who hadn’t yet reached for any of his wishes, is assassinated by whom? And by whose order? and why? I ask the City Council, what had my son asked of you? Of the government? Of the country? We just wanted tranquility, liberty, my son was just thinking about who he would vote for, and then asking “Where has my vote gone…?” He asked for nothing more, he was just killed because he was supporter of Mr. Mousavi… for what kind of crime was he killed…? My son was just a 19 year old boy…. He hadn’t yet reached for any of his wishes… I, his mother – day and night I am asking God to put an end to this oppression…."

The Martyrdom of Mohsen Roh Allamini

A picture of Mohsen Roh Allamini who was killed in prison after being arrested during the protests. He is the son of Dr. Abdullah Hussein Roh Allamini Najafabadi.

Dr. Najafabadi was a senior adviser to the Presidential campaign of Mohsen Rezai. Rezai was a former head of the Republican Guard and the leading conservative alternative to Ahmadinejad in the recent elections. Dr. Najafabadi was also the head of the Pastor Institute, which is the Iranian equivalent to the CDC, during Ahmadinejad’s first term.

Dr. Najafabadi's son Mohsen Roh Allamini was martyred in prison after he was arrested in the July 9 protests to mark the 1999 student protests. He was in his 20s and was a computer science engineer.

If the son of such a prominent Iranian who was part of the regime can be killed, then those in power must really be desperate to crush the will of the Iranian people. My thoughts go to his family and his death will not be in vain.

Ahmadinejad Cannot Even Control His Own Cabinet

According to this report, there was a very tense meeting in which members of Ahmadinejad openly quarreled with him over his choice for first VP with several members walking out. If Ahmadinejad has this much trouble controlling his own cabinet with hardliners, you can imagine why these guys cannot control the country for very much longer. Also Khameini has made renewed calls to sack Ahmadinejad's choice of Mashai as VP.

NIAC reports during his sermon at this week's Friday Prayers, hardline cleric Ahmad Khatami (not to be confused with the reformist former president Khatami) has called on Ahmadinejad to sack his VP essentially because Khameini said so.

This is what happens when there is no longer the rule of law and the constitution in a country. When a government steals an election and violates its own ideals, then there is no system in place to keep everything in order. Also it shows the danger of having a President with no legitimacy and who owes his place to the approval of a few individuals. Those individuals feel that they have a right to pressure the President to do whatever they would like such as sacking his own choice for his deputy.

Co-Founder of Ansar-e Hezbollah Speaks Out Against Regime

Ansar-e Hezbollah is a conservative paramilitary force loyal to the supreme leader and dedicated to upholding the Revolution. Indeed, there have been reports that members of the group were used to crack down on protesters.

Yet Masoud Dehnamaki co-founder of Ansar-e Hezbollah, has spoken out against the regime according to this report by NIAC. Dehnamaki was one of the most conservative members of the regime and his statements are shocking coming from a man who participated in the 1999 crackdown against the student revolt:

“Members of this government should rely on the rule of law and not put their eggs in one basket. This government came into power by making claims against others for being corrupt, however they themselves have committed acts of corruption. And since there is no credibility and accountability for his government, corruption will remain.”

Also he goes on to say "today’s leadership has distanced itself from the path of the Imam [Khomeini]"

This type of criticism from such a conservative guy cannot by good for those trying to cling to power.

Mousavi's Brother-In-Law Arrested

Here in the US, we don't like it when politicians go after their opponents family. In Iran, sadly Mousavi's brother-in-law Shapour Kazemi has been arrested in a move that is meant to put pressure on Mousavi to stop making trouble.

Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard says her brother is apolitical and there was no reason to arrest him. Unfortunetly it seems that the current regime will sink to any level to hold their grip on power.

Ayatollah Dastgheyb Backs Rafsanjani Remarks

Mousavi' Facebook is really trying to demonstrate the amount of clerical support the Reform movement has. Here is a post about Ayatollah Seyyed Ali-Mohammad Dastgheyb supporting the remarks made by Rafsanjani at last Friday's prayers and stating that the demands of the opposition must be heard.

Dastgheyb argues violence against the people cannot save the Islamic Revolution; instead the government must work to earn the trust of the people again. He also states with regard to Rafsanjani, "threatening and humiliating him for saying true words is unacceptable." Here is the full translated text:

"To the respected Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the Head of the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council and the long-time friend of the departed Imam [Khomeini] (God bless him) and the Islamic Revolution:

Everyone listened to your thoughtful advices in Tehran’s Friday Prayer on July seventeenth, and you reinstated the concerns of many people of this country that are all Muslims and true admirers of the Prophet of Islam (Mohammad, peace be upon him) and warned about the resentment of these majority of people. We witnessed the beating of the defenseless people especially the academics. Filling prisons and harsh interrogations are not hidden from anyone.

You proposed some good suggestions for relative console: releasing all the prisoners [detained after the election], comforting them and their families, and letting them to say their logical words freely; and also for the public media not judging with bias.

I make a humble remark that from the past until today people have been supporters of Foghaha (high-ranked religious figures). The use of cold weapon or even perhaps firearms, and imprisonment for the followers of these Foghaha and for the admirers of Islam and clergy mean turning back from the religion and loneliness, and this not only has no benefits but will even have drawbacks, and this is not the meaning of protecting the government and one could not save Islam and the Revolution this way.

This kind of behavior will distance people from the government and Islam. United States, Russia, China or any other super-power has never been our ally and will never be. The benefit is in friendship and companionship with the people. What I heard in Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s remarks was thoughtful. Threatening and humiliating him for saying true words is unacceptable.

In any case, it is necessary to listen to the logical requests of admirers of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution, Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mr. Karoubi, and Mr. Rezaee that many people voted for them, as this way we will certainly become close to a great number of people. Furthermore we warn that the history of Muslims, especially Shias attests that until this day Maraje and scholars have been the reference and refuge for the people, therefore the thoughtful and fair words and speeches of Maraje and scholars should show this, so that there won’t be any suspicion of separation between the people and Maraje and scholars."

Translated by: Sara Azad

Another Ayatollah Against Ahmadinejad

Mousavi's Facebook has this post about statements made by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani about the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's election:

“If someone finds confidence that the mentioned individual has come to power by illegitimate means and by forgery, his confirmation by the Supreme Leader as the president and the completion of the inauguration ceremony will not legitimize him as these are not cause for legitimacy and these two are important only when the individual has come to power based on a healthy election.”

Zanjani is responding to questions posed to him about what a devout Muslim should do in the current situation. In Shii Islam, there is a tradition of people asking the Ayatollahs to make religious rulings as to the appropiate action in various situations.

In this post, Zanjani essentially argues that the President does not get legitimacy from the Supreme Leader, but rather from the people. This view supports the idea that a government needs to be elected by the people in order to be legitimate, but what is important is that Zanjani argues that this is a requirement in Islam. These rulings are so powerful because they have the weight of an important scholar of Islam behind them.

Zanjani is giving Islamic sanction to the idea that a devout Muslim has a right (if not a duty) to challenge Ahmadinejad if they believe his election was not legitimate:

"if someone considers the president as well as the administration illegitimate, he should not work with them and in case of cooperation, he will be considered as one of “the cooperators with the injustice"

This ruling is in direct opposition to statements the Supreme Leader has said in favor of Ahmadinejad. It shows you again the decreasing amount of support this regime has among the upper clergy.

Key Player: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Perhaps no person more embodies the tyrannical nature of this regime more than "President" Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Even though the Supreme Leader might have more power than him, he is perhaps the most hated man in Iran because he represents all that is wrong with the hardliners in power. However to his constituent of supporters, he is a defender of Islam against the negative affects of Western imperialism.

Ahmadinejad comes from humble origins with his father famously being a blacksmith, and he was a student during the turbulent period of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. His activities during the Iran-Iraq are not entirely clear, but reports suggest that he was part of the Basij militia and other parts of Iran's intelligence service. In 1993, he was appointed as the governor general of Ardabil Province, but he was removed from that post in 1997 by reformist President Khatami. In 2003 among low turnout, Ahmadinejad was elected mayor of Tehran and his term included an stepping up of enforcement of religious regulations. Finally in 2005 he was elected President of Iran in an election that saw wide spread voter apathy and a boycott by many reformists because the government barred many progressive candidates from running. He defeated former President Rafsanjani by running on an anti-corruption (Rafsanjani is one of the wealthiest men in Iran) and anti-Western platform.

Ahmadinejad's presidency was marked by hostility towards the West and defiance regarding Iran's nuclear program. At home, volatility in the price of oil along with the current recession has caused the Iran economy to go to shambles hurting Ahmadinejad's credibility among the poor. The governments tendency towards human rights violations have also alienated Ahmadinejad with those who want greater freedom in Iran. Yet his supporters claim that Ahmadinejad is a hero of the Iranian nation who is standing up to Western imperialism and is spreading Iranian power throughout the world.

It is clear that Ahmadinejad's support has fallen to the point that a highly mobilized opposition movement almost certainly beat him in his recent bid for re-election. Of course, we all know about the rigged results and Ahmadinejad's arrogance in defending his "victory". Ahmadinejad is a man of extremes and this is true about supporters and detractors: people either hate him or love him. Safe to say with all the unrest in Iran, the majority of Iranians probably hate him now. Yet he still remains in power and will be a critical part of the unfolding story in Iran.

p.s. His name is so difficult to pronounce because it is a combination of the words Ahmad and Nejad. Ahmad is an Arabic word that is the root for the name of the prophet Muhammad. Nejad means the follower of something. Thus his name indicates that he is a follower of Muhammad.

English Interview with Reformist Cleric

Here is a great interview with one of the top reformist clerics outside Iran. Mohsen Kadivar is now exiled in the United States and this interview gives you a good sense of the type of people leading the opposition movement:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10488

Kadivar is a cleric and professor who has written extensively about the importance of freedom and democracy in Islam. When he was in Iran, he was put in prison because of his views against the regime and was released partially with the help of his friend Mousavi. Recently, he has spoken out against the actions of the government of Iran and has written statements detailing why the actions of the regime are against Islam. He has also worked with his teacher Grand Ayotallah Montezari to condemn the crackdown on protesters and the arrest of political prisoners.

He was also my professor in political philosophy of Islam and much of my knowledge of the current situation comes from him.

Hunger Strike at UN

Iranian activists are holding a hunger strike at the UN to demand more action. Here is their website:

http://strike4iran.com/

I think the UN is one of entities that should speak out boldly against what is going on in Iran since it would not be prudent for individual countries to do so. Iranians have a great deal of pride in their nation and the contributions that it has given to the world community. To have an organization like the UN which represents all nations to criticize Iran would have a great deal of impact in Iran. As Rafsanjani said in his speech, Iran has been humiliated in the world community. This sens of humiliation could be a strong force to keep the regime in check and ultimately lead to a reformist victory. So I strongly support the hunger strike at the UN and call on the UN to speak out against the regime in Iran.

Clerics Split

A great list of the position of various clerics on the unrest:

http://tehranbureau.com/ayatollah-watch/

To be fair, I think this list uses the title "Grand Ayatollah" and "Ayatollah" too liberally because I do think that all of these clerics have reached such high ranks. Nevertheless, all of these people are senior clerics and the amount of them that are against the regime just shows how little support those in power have left.

Iran's clerics are split and I don't think the regime can expect to survive indefinitely with this little support among the upper clergy. In fact if I had to bet on the overall clerics in Iran, I would say a majority are with the reformists.

Remember This?

President Obama spoke to the people of Iran before it was cool to do so.

This clip is from 3 months before the Iranian presidential election and was created to mark the Persian New Year of Nowruz. Iranians celebrate their new year at the beginning of Spring and it is the most important holiday in the country.

If you are a right-wing critic of the President, you probably don't remember this video because you were too busy advocating bombing the very people you now say you stand with when the clip came out. Yet I can tell you this clip was very important for Iranians, and friends that were in Iran have told me people were crying when they saw it.

The critics of the President who say he should speak out more forcibly against the regime seem to not understand the concept of targeting certain segments of the Iranian regime to achieve the best results. The people who would appreciate strong statements from the US probably don't need them because they are already strongly against the regime. Obama is really trying to win over the moderate to conservative elements in Iran that have the potential to turn against the regime because of its brutal and un-Islamic actions. This segment would still be weary of American intervention and might be hesitant to criticize the regime if it seems like the US is getting too involved.

However in this clip, this swing segment is precisely the group Obama was reaching out to before the unrest. Again those who like America probably enjoyed this clip, but did not need it. However, it is those moderate Iranians in the mold of Rafsanjani that Obama was really targeting. He wanted to convey a message that America is not the enemy and that it can be a partner to work with. This gesture in turn would cause those moderates away from the hardliners and towards the reformist who want greater engagement with the West. In other words, Obama knows when to speak out and when to be quite in order to persuade undecided Iranians to join the reformers.

Essentially, this is the opposite of what President Bush did when he labeled Iran as part of the "Axis of Evil" and grouped Iran with its arch enemy Saddam Hussein. That strategic failure drove the swing segment of the Iranian population towards the hardliners who argued that America could not be trusted and helped give rise to Ahmadinejad and his fiery rhetoric.

It is hard to tell the impact of Obama coming to power and this clip on the unrest in Iran, but I think it is no coincidence the biggest challenge in the history of the Islamic Republic to the hardliners in power came in the first six months of the Obama presidency. Hopefully this video will be seen as the starting point of a new era of US-Iran relations in the years to come.

Why The Reform Movement Is So Dangerous To The Regime

From left to right: Foremer President Mohammad Khatami; Mousavi Bojnourdi, a member of the Association of Combatant Clerics (a reform cleric group), Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi; Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha; and Mohammad Ali Ansari, a former member of Iran’s parliament and council of experts.

These guys don't look like a bunch of Western secular liberals who are trying to introduce foreign destructive ideas into Iran. That's because they are not. Yet these are some of the leading members of the opposition movement who have been working to remove the current hardliners in power.

This image shows you why the reform movement is so dangerous for the regime. Many of the leading opposition leaders are clerics and they all belong to the system. It is clear that they are not puppets of the West and they only have the best interest of the Iranian people in mind. This image makes it hard for the hardliners in power to paint them as anyting other than devout Muslims who believe in the Islamic Republic. Yet at the same time, these men also believe in the importance of freedom and democracy for the Islamic Republic.