More Karim Sadjadpour Anaylsis

Following up this post about Karim Sadjadpour's analysis on the situation in Iran, here are some of the specific input he gave the House Foreign Affairs Committee:

"The current scale of repression has been costly for the regime. Politically, fissures have widened among the regime elite. In the last week alone former presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami have challenged the legitimacy of the election. The financial costs of maintaining martial law, overflowing prisons, and media and communications blackouts are also significant for the government. Given the decline in oil prices, the current scale of repression will prove difficult to sustain for a long period."

"Avoid making any military threats. Based on recent experience, there is good reason to believe that not only would Khamanei and Ahmadinejad not be cowed by this rhetoric but also they would actually welcome U.S. or Israel strikes as a way to unite squabbling political factions against a common threat and keep agitated Iranian citizens preoccupied with foreign quarrels."

"Don’t underestimate the magnitude of this moment. While the type of change Iranians seek may continue to prove elusive for months, if not years, the United States should not underestimate the size, strength, maturity, and resolve of this movement, nor its enormous implications. While this movement must be driven by Iranians themselves, it should remain a U.S. foreign policy imperative not to do anything to deter its success or alter its trajectory."