US Intelligence Report Says Iran Cannot Build Bomb Before 2013

It seems for the last 10 years, Iran has always been three to four years from a nuclear bomb. A new intelligence report from the State Department states that Iran is you guessed it four years from producing weapons-grade material. The information was supplied to the Senate by the Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair.

The report goes on to say that it is only reporting on Iran's technical capability to produce a weapon and is not a judgment about "when Iran might make any political decision" about building a bomb. Basically that means that it will take Iran until 2013 to have the technology to build the bomb, but there is no proof that Iran has even made a political decision to pursue nuclear weapons.

Yet everyday I read Opinion pieces that all sound the same in major newspapers with no evidence to back them up about the immediate threat of Iran's nuclear program. This article from the LA Times sounds the alarm bells about Iran, but fails to mention the new American intelligence estimate. The author's tone clearly makes it seem a nuclear armed Iran is a few months away and he has automatically assumed that Iran has made the political decision to build the bomb when there is no evidence to suggest that.

I am not saying we should pretend like Iran does not have some sort of nuclear program or that they might possibly want nuclear weapons. However we should be honest about how long it will take for Iran to get nuclear weapons and make judgements based on actual evidence.

Those who warn of Iran's nuclear ambitions often argue that the regime is similar to Nazi Germany and that we cannot trust Iran in any circumstances. Yet the significant difference is that Iran has a strong and viable opposition movement that has a very good possibility of overthrowing the regime. I believe that Obama is taking a wait and see approach to Iran because he is hoping the reformist side wins. He will give it six more months or a year to see if the reformists can come to power. By all indication, the reformists do not want to build a nuclear weapon and they are not overtly hostile to any outside nation.

What those who monger fear about Iran do not tell you is their real alternative to the Obama approach. That alternative is launching preemptive strikes against Iran that could lead to a possibility of a regional conflict in which thousands of Americans might die. It will also crush the opposition movement in Iran and solidfy the hold on power of the hardliners in Iran.

The United States went to war in Iraq because it did not listen to the evidence, but rather ideology and fear mongering. Iraq possessed no Weapons of Mass Destruction and did not pose a legitimate threat to any nation.

We cannot let the mistakes of Iraq happen again with a foolish military attack on Iran. There is at least four years until Iran can even produce a nuclear weapon and we must give the opposition time to possibly overthrow the current regime. For the next few years, the United States has to pursue the outcome in Iran that has the possiblity of the greatest good which is the reformist coming to power. That way Iran will be free of nuclear weapons without any costs to the United States and a friendlier regime will be in Tehran. As long as that realistic possiblity exists, the risk of a very hostile hardline regime is much greater than waiting a little longer to take military action against Iran.